Capital Journal: Trump Faces Narrow Path to Victory | U.S. Joins Turkish Forces to Launch Push Against ISIS in Syria | The Election’s Four Key Battleground States

Capital Journal Daybreak

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HIGHLIGHTS

•	Trump Faces Narrow Path to White House Victory

•	Dante Chinni: Trouble Signs for Trump in Exurbs

•	U.S. Joins Turkish Forces to Launch Push Against Islamic State

•	Clinton Fundraisers: No Press Allowed \| Clinton Hosted at Dinner Ukrainian Donor to Family Foundation

•	Seib Video: The Election's Four Key Battleground States

TRUMP FACES NARROW PATH TO WHITE HOUSE VICTORY: As the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall presidential race approaches, Republican Donald Trump faces an increasingly narrow path to the White House. A Trump victory over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton likely would require a sweep of a set of battleground states where he is competitive but trailing in recent opinion polls—Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina—and both campaigns describe them as the heart of the race. Mrs. Clinton, by contrast, could win with just one of them, partly because Democrats start with a larger number of states that historically side with them.

Both campaigns have put their money and their time in those states, despite suggestions they might turn elsewhere. Mr. Trump has traveled to those states more than others and has paid advertising in only these four states. Of the 20 media markets that have received the greatest number of ad spots placed by either the Clinton campaign or its main super PAC, 16 are in one of them, according to data from an ad tracker not affiliated with either campaign. Laura Meckler reports.

Plus: Mr. Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by just one percentage point in Missouri, a state the Democrats have won only twice since 1976 … Confusion abounds about where Mr. Trump's campaign travels will take him. Several campaign events that had been expected — in Colorado, Nevada and Oregon — have been cancelled or rescheduled this week … More in Washington Wire.

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DANTE CHINNI: TROUBLE SIGNS FOR TRUMP IN EXURBS

America's big cities have long been core Democratic strongholds, and the suburbs just around them have increasingly backed the party's candidates, as well. That trend is bringing new attention to the Republican Party's reliance on the next geographic ring outside cities—the exurbs, an area that is proving to be a trouble spot for Donald Trump. Mr. Trump must at least match Mitt Romney's showing in the exurbs, especially given signs in opinion polls that he is underperforming his GOP predecessor in the nation's suburbs. Read Dante Chinni's full post in Washington Wire.

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WSJ STORIES YOU SHOULDN'T MISS

U.S. JOINS TURKISH FORCES TO LAUNCH PUSH AGAINST ISIS IN SYRIA: Turkish and American military forces launched a major offensive in northwestern Syria against Islamic State militants early Wednesday as they try to sever the extremist group's vital supply routes and deter Kurdish fighters from seizing a key border town, according to officials from both countries. Turkish special forces, aided by American military advisers, U.S. drones and Turkish artillery units, moved into northern Syria before dawn as part of the coordinated campaign to push Islamic State out of a strategic town on the Euphrates River, officials said.The coordinated attack ramped up as Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Ankara for meetings with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim. Dion Nissenbaum and Carol E. Lee report. [Earlier: U.S. Eyes Aiding Turkish-Backed Rebels Against Islamic State in Syria]

Plus: Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Turkey on Wednesday, in a visit that comes at a critical moment as the U.S. tries to smooth over thorny relations after last month's failed coup. In Latvia on Tuesday, Mr. Biden promised a U.S. response to any act of Russian aggression in Europe and told Baltic leaders to ignore Mr. Trump's dismissive comments about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

CLINTON FUNDRAISERS: NO PRESS ALLOWED: Campaign donors will see and hear a lot from Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the next month as she embarks on a fundraising tour, but voters will have little clue as to what she says behind closed doors. Mrs. Clinton's practice since the beginning of her 16-month campaign has been to bar the press from her fundraising events, opening them only to supporters able to pay ticket prices that can run to tens of thousands of dollars. Her rival, Republican Donald Trump, also is conducting his fundraisers in private. Their practice is at odds with that of President Barack Obama. Colleen McCain Nelson and Peter Nicholas report.

CLINTON FOUNDATION: As secretary of state, Mrs. Clinton hosted a dinner involving Clinton Foundation donors, including a Ukrainian businessman who had given money to the organization and retained a lobbyist to arrange State Department meetings.

nicholas kamm/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

OBAMA PROMISES LOUISIANA FLOOD VICTIMS SUPPORT: President Barack Obama traveled to the Baton Rouge, La., area on Tuesday to pledge federal support to repair the damage from some of the worst flooding to hit the U.S. in years, while also calling for private donors and volunteers to help get families and local businesses back on their feet. On Tuesday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that it has provided more than $127 million so far to help people hit by the flooding—including $107 million to help pay for temporary rent, home repairs and other disaster-related needs. FEMA has paid out another $20 million to flood insurance policyholders who have filed a claim, according to a spokesman. FEMA is paying for about 700 families to be housed in hotels and motels. Cameron McWhirter and Colleen McCain Nelson report.

Plus: The increasing likelihood that the president won't secure a trade agreement with Asia before leaving office could leave a significant void in the foreign-policy legacy he sought after winning a second term.

ALSO IN THE NEWS

• The National Labor Relations Board ruled that graduate students who teach at private universities are employees with full rights to join unions, a sweeping decision that paves the way for student unionization on campuses nationwide.

• An American was killed in Afghanistan and another wounded on Tuesday as their patrol encountered an improvised explosive device during a routine patrol.

• A 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck central Italy, killing dozens of people and leaving many trapped beneath the rubble of buildings that collapsed while they slept.

• Five states, a Catholic health network and other Christian health-care providers sued the federal government, hoping to block a new rule they say could require doctors to provide gender-transition treatments and procedures that conflict with their beliefs.

• A slowdown in tax receipts, especially from corporate profits, will cause the U.S. federal budget deficit to widen this year for the first time since 2009, while other forces will contain the growth rate of the national debt in coming years, analysts said.

• A fugitive executive is returning to the U.S. from Africa to plead guilty in an options-backdating scandal.

• U.S. lawmakers plan to examine the merger wave that could reshape the market for seeds and pesticides.

• Tesla Motors announced it will sell a battery capable of taking an electric car 315 miles on a charge, the first time an auto maker is providing that much electric range in a vehicle, the company said.

• A handful of companies and pay experts are questioning across-the-board annual pay raises, with some contending that giving larger and more frequent bonuses might spur better performance and be more cost-efficient.

• Traffic fatalities rose 9% in the first six months of 2016, compared with a year earlier, as a stronger economy and falling gas prices encouraged Americans to spend more time behind the wheel, the National Safety Council said.

SEIB VIDEO: THE ELECTION'S FOUR KEY BATTLEGROUNDS

As election day nears, four states have emerged as key to success for presidential candidates Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump. Washington Bureau Chief Jerry Seib explains why.

HERE'S A LOOK AT THE DAY AHEAD

• OBAMA ADMINISTRATION: President Barack Obama has meetings at the White House. Vice President Joe Biden has meetings in Turkey with Turkish leaders including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Secretary of State John Kerry meets with a group of girls working to change community perceptions that devalue the role of girls in society in Abuja, Nigeria, and travels to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

• ELECTION 2016: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds rallies in Tampa,Fla., at 1 p.m. and in Jackson, Miss., at 8 p.m. ET. His running mate, Gov. Mike Pence, holds a rally at 3 p.m. in Wilmington, N.C.

• ECONOMIC INDICATORS: The National Association of Realtors releases existing home sales for July at 10 a.m.

WHAT WE'RE READING AROUND THE WEB

• The Weekly Standard's William Kristol, a Donald Trump critic, writes: "I think Trump has a chance to win. While the odds certainly favor Clinton, I don't think the race is over, and I do think the conventional wisdom is much too confident of a Clinton victory. "

• New campaign spending reports indicate that the Trump campaign is placing "a big bet" on online advertising, write Zachary Mider and Bill Allison of Bloomberg News: "The online push by Trump may reflect his expanding efforts to raise outside cash, after relying mostly on his own funds during the Republican primary campaign."

• Researchers at Georgetown University find that anti-trade campaign rhetoric in a campaign usually isn't followed by presidential actions fully matching that rhetoric, writes Sarah Reid of the Financial Post. History "shows that while leaders rarely exit or renegotiate trade agreements, sometimes they will simply not implement parts of economic agreements that have been agreed to by prior leaders."

• In the WSJ's Think Tank, Aykan Erdemir writes of the high stakes for Vice President Joe Biden's current visit to Turkey: "Ankara's growing authoritarianism and diplomatic pivot away from the West would be a blow not only to Turkish democracy but also to its NATO allies. As Mr. Biden meets with Turkish officials, he might remind them that the bilateral partnership–within the NATO umbrella–is based on military cooperation as well as shared values."

MILESTONE

12.4%

Sales of newly built homes jumped 12.4% in July to the highest level in since October 2007, a sign of solid momentum in the U.S. housing market.

FEEDBACK: The Capital Journal Daybreak newsletter is The Wall Street Journal's morning rundown of the biggest news stories and exclusive features from Washington on politics, policy, financial regulation, defense and more. Send your tips, feedback and suggestions for recommended reading to editor Kate Milani at kate.milani@wsj.com.